EU ecommerce customs fee takes effect as Chinese volumes slide

The flat-rate levy of 3 euros on small ecommerce parcels, introduced by the European Union on 1 July, appears to be having a noticeable impact on air freight volumes between China and Europe. According to the analytics firm Rotate, parcel volumes between the origin regions of China/Hong Kong and Europe were 19 per cent below the previous week’s level in the first 48 hours after the levy came into force.

The declines were particularly sharp at the European ecommerce hubs of Budapest (down 45 per cent) and Liège (down 27 per cent). Among the points of origin, Hong Kong recorded the sharpest drop, down 47 per cent.

However, the extent to which the decline is actually attributable to the new levy remains unclear, as Chinese ecommerce exports have already been shrinking sharply for months. An analysis by Trade and Transport Group, a consultancy specialising in air freight, shows that goods classified as low-value shipments fell globally by 10.9 per cent to 9.8 billion US dollars in April – the fifth consecutive decline. In the first four months of 2026, exports fell by 7.6 per cent, following growth rates of 22 per cent for the whole of 2025 and 38.3 per cent in 2024.

Chinese ecommerce imports into the EU have been shrinking for the past six months

The expected pull-forward effect ahead of the EU levy coming into force also failed to materialise. Frederic Horst, Managing Director of Trade and Transport Group, points out that Chinese exports in the low-value segment fell by a further 7 per cent in May, continuing a trend that has persisted for a good half a year. The value of shipments to the EU fell by 32 per cent in April and by 20.4 per cent cumulatively from January to May.

The 17 per cent decline to Europe in April was even sharper than the global average – just a few weeks before the new EU flat-rate levy of 3 euros per product type on small consignments under 150 euros came into force. The levy targets platforms such as Temu and Shein, which had increasingly redirected their parcel flows to the EU following the end of the de minimis exemption in the US on 1 August 2025.

At country level, the picture is mixed. France recorded a 60 per cent decline in April, Germany 34 per cent, Spain and Poland 23 per cent each, and Belgium 12 per cent. Only Hungary saw growth, at 5 per cent. Hungary and Belgium are regarded as key entry points for cross-border ecommerce shipments into the EU.